Everything is under control. Until it isn’t.

By Ulli Diemer


October 27, 1962. We’ve gone close to the brink more times than most of us realize, but October 27, 1962 was the day the world we know almost came to an end. On that day, in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world was seconds away from all-out nuclear war.

The Cuban Missile Crisis arose out of a series of strategic calculations which made sense to military and political planners on both sides. In the nuclear age, a miscalculation can result in unspeakable catastrophe, but nonetheless, decision-makers continue to take risky actions which they calculate will bring them an advantage. They assume that they can to push forward and ‘show strength’ and then push some more, while reserving the option of showing restraint if the other side pushes back too vigorously.

The American side has always been the more aggressive. In the early 1960s this aggression manifested itself, among other things, in a failed invasion of Cuba intended to overthrow Cuba’s left-wing government, and then in the placement of American nuclear missiles in Turkey, right on the borders of the Soviet Union itself. The Soviets regarded these missiles as intolerable because they potentially gave the Americans the capacity to launch a first strike nuclear attack on the Soviet Union. A first strike has always been an option which American military planners have regarded as a possibility to consider: a devastating surprise attack which would eliminate most of the Soviets’ (or now, Russians’) ability to strike back.

The Soviets responded to the placement of American nuclear missiles in Turkey by placing its own missiles in Cuba. The U.S. reacted very aggressively. They imposed a naval blockade on Cuba (illegal under international law) and threatened to bomb and invade Cuba if the missiles were not removed. For several days, the world teetered on the brink. People went to bed not knowing if they would still be alive in the morning.

The crisis reached its climax on October 27, when the U.S. detected a Soviet submarine, the B-59, in international waters near Cuba. The commander of an American warship in the area, who may have been acting without authorization from his military superiors, decided to drop depth charges on the Soviet submarine. This was an outright act of war. More than that, an attack on the other country’s nuclear forces was understood to be the gravest possible provocation, a step that would be taken only if a nuclear war was being launched.

There is often an element of chance in crises, and in this crisis an unforeseen circumstance was that the B-59 had suffered technical problems which had put its communications system out of commission. The commanders of the submarine could not contact Moscow for orders, and had no way of knowing what was going on elsewhere. Had war in fact broken out, or was the American attack on their ship the action of a rogue officer acting without orders?

If war had broken out, as the attack on their ship seemed to indicate, the Soviet submarines’ orders were to launch their nuclear missiles against American targets. In a situation such as this one, where they were unable to contact their military command, the decision was left up to the commanders of the ship. Recognizing the gravity and irrevocable nature of a decision to launch nuclear missiles, the protocol was that the captain of the submarine, and the two senior officers on board, had to unanimously agree to fire their missiles.

The captain of the B-59, Valentin Grigoryevich Savitsky, decided that it was probable that a nuclear war had already started, and wanted to give the order to launch. Political Officer Ivan Semyonovich Maslennikov agreed. The other senior officer, Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov, said no. There was a furious argument among the three men, but Arkhipov held firm, and eventually persuaded the captain to surface and await orders from Moscow. It turned out that war had not broken out. If the B-59 had launched its missiles, however, there would have been a nuclear war between the Soviet Union and the United States. Hundreds of millions would have died.

The next day, realizing that events were spiralling out of control, U.S. President Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev came to an agreement to end the crisis: The Soviets would remove their missiles from Cuba, and the U.S. would remove their missiles from Turkey.

There would be no war – this time. Because one man, Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov, said no.


Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov: The man who saved the world. height=

The world now finds itself in probably the most dangerous situation since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

In the Middle East, the danger of a major war which will devastate much of the region, with incalculable human and environmental costs, is increasing by the day. In Israel, the Netanyahu regime seems to have decided that, not a peaceful settlement, but an all-out regional war which will bring in the United States, is its best strategic option. There are voices in Israel’s military and security apparatus who are warning against the enormous risks this entails, but it seems they are not being listened to.

The greatest danger to the entire planet, the potential flashpoint which could lead to a nuclear war, is in Ukraine. The US/NATO alliance has a long record of pushing, pushing, pushing against Russia. When Russia warns of red lines which will lead to serious retaliation, they pause briefly, instruct their Ukrainian proxy to hold off, but not long after, the pushing, the testing of Russia’s limits, starts again. American spyplanes and satellites provide targeting information for Ukrainian missiles striking Russia. American warplanes buzz Russia’s borders. Ukraine mounts attacks, fortunately so far unsuccessful, against nuclear power plants. Ukraine has even attempted to attack an early warning station which would warn Russia of a nuclear attack: an act of sheer madness, since an attack on such an installation would be the first step in a nuclear attack on Russia, and would therefore be probable grounds for Russia to launch its nuclear missiles.

It has been clear for some time that Ukraine cannot win this war, but as it has from the beginning, the United States and its NATO allies continue to insist that Ukraine keep waging war rather than make peace, no matter what the cost in human lives. Their goal is to hurt Russia, no matter how many Ukrainians (and Russians) are killed or injured. Zelensky’s increasingly isolated, authoritarian, and desperate regime, for its part, has come to believe that the only way it can salvage something from this war is to get the Americans directly involved in the fighting. So far, the U.S. has sought to avoid going too far, well aware than a direct American attack on Russia would almost certainly lead to a direct Russian attack on the United States. But at the same time, American decision-makers disdain diplomacy: the only language they know is that of power politics. That is a recipe for disaster, sooner or later.

All it will take is one misstep, one miscalculation, one reckless action by a mid-level military officer acting without orders – and the missiles will start flying. And it will be game over for the human race.

In 1962, humanity survived because one man, Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov, said no, and because John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev were rational enough to realize that things had gone too far and that they had to compromise. We have to hope that there are enough shreds of sanity among those in power today to once again avoid disaster.


October 2024. First published in Other Voices.



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2023 Ulli Diemer.